⏱️ 5 min read

Throughout history, there have been countless moments where a single decision, a stroke of luck, or a seemingly minor event could have altered the course of civilization. These pivotal instances remind us how fragile historical outcomes can be and how different our world might look today if circumstances had shifted even slightly. Understanding these near-misses provides valuable insight into the contingent nature of historical progress and the profound impact of individual actions and chance occurrences.

The Assassination Attempt That Nearly Prevented World War II

In November 1939, Georg Elser, a German carpenter, came remarkably close to assassinating Adolf Hitler. Elser planted a time bomb in the Bürgerbräukeller in Munich, where Hitler was scheduled to give his annual speech commemorating the Beer Hall Putsch. The bomb was meticulously constructed and perfectly positioned. However, due to fog conditions affecting his return flight to Berlin, Hitler cut his speech short by thirteen minutes and left the venue early. The bomb detonated exactly as planned, killing eight people and injuring sixty-two others, but Hitler had already departed.

Had Hitler been killed in 1939, before the full implementation of the Holocaust and the expansion of World War II into a truly global conflict, millions of lives might have been spared. The Nazi regime was not yet firmly consolidated, and Germany’s military campaigns were still in their early stages. The trajectory of the twentieth century could have been fundamentally different.

The Soviet Officer Who Prevented Nuclear War

On September 26, 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov was on duty at a Soviet nuclear early-warning center when the system detected five incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles from the United States. Protocol demanded that Petrov immediately report the attack to his superiors, which would have likely triggered a devastating nuclear counterstrike against America. The Cold War tensions were at a peak, and the Soviet leadership was primed to believe an American first strike was possible.

Instead, Petrov made a split-second decision to trust his intuition over his equipment. He reasoned that an actual American first strike would involve hundreds of missiles, not just five, and reported the incident as a false alarm. He was correct—the detection system had malfunctioned, mistaking sunlight reflecting off clouds for missiles. Petrov’s judgment quite possibly prevented nuclear annihilation and the end of human civilization as we know it.

The Weather That Saved England from Invasion

In 1588, the Spanish Armada, consisting of 130 ships and over 30,000 men, set sail to invade England and overthrow Queen Elizabeth I. The Spanish plan was to transport a large army across the English Channel and restore Catholic rule to England. The fleet was the most formidable naval force ever assembled at that time, and England’s chances appeared slim.

However, a combination of English naval tactics and severe weather disrupted the invasion. After initial skirmishes with English ships, the Armada was forced to retreat northward, intending to circle around Scotland and Ireland to return to Spain. Violent storms in the North Atlantic destroyed a significant portion of the fleet, with fewer than half the ships ultimately returning to Spain. Had the weather been favorable, Spanish troops might have successfully landed in England, potentially altering the religious, political, and cultural development of the English-speaking world.

The Archduke’s Wrong Turn

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, is well known as the catalyst that triggered World War I. Less known is how close the archduke came to surviving that day. Earlier that morning, a bomb had been thrown at his motorcade but missed, injuring others instead. The archduke decided to visit the wounded in the hospital, but his driver was not informed of the route change.

The driver made a wrong turn onto Franz Josef Street, coincidentally placing the archduke’s vehicle directly in front of Gavrilo Princip, one of the original conspirators who had assumed the assassination attempt had failed. Princip seized the unexpected opportunity and fired the fatal shots. Had the driver been properly informed, or had he not made that specific wrong turn, Ferdinand would likely have survived, potentially preventing or significantly delaying the outbreak of the First World War and all its subsequent consequences, including the Russian Revolution and the conditions that led to World War II.

The Mongol Khan’s Death and the Fate of Europe

In 1241, Mongol forces under the command of Batu Khan had swept through Eastern Europe with terrifying efficiency, defeating Polish and Hungarian armies and reaching the outskirts of Vienna. The Mongol Empire, at its peak, possessed military technology and tactics far superior to European forces. Contemporary observers believed nothing could stop the Mongol advance into Western Europe.

Then, abruptly, the Mongols withdrew. News had reached Batu Khan that Ögedei Khan, the Great Khan and supreme ruler of the Mongol Empire, had died in Mongolia. Mongol law required all princes of the blood to return to Mongolia to elect a new khan. Batu Khan turned his forces around and never returned to Europe. Had Ögedei lived even a few more years, the Mongols might have conquered all of Europe, fundamentally altering Western civilization, Christianity’s development, and the eventual rise of European colonial powers.

The Significance of Historical Contingency

These moments illustrate a crucial aspect of historical study: outcomes that seem inevitable in hindsight were often anything but certain at the time. The interplay of human decisions, chance events, and environmental factors creates a complex web of causation where small changes can produce dramatically different results. Understanding this contingency helps us appreciate both the fragility of our current world and the genuine agency of individuals in shaping historical outcomes. It also serves as a reminder that the future remains unwritten, subject to the choices we make today.